Stock Market Hits Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Expectations

July 5, 2024

On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing at 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq at 18,352.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose, closing at 39,375.87. The market's rally this year has been attributed to investors' expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in response to potential economic weakness. The latest jobs report showed a 206,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in June, but a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, which was higher than the expected 4%. This led to a decrease in Treasury yields as investors anticipated a Fed rate cut later in the year. The report also prompted a rise in the odds of a September interest rate cut to about 77%, up from 64% a week ago. While the stock market closed at record levels, concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy were also raised. The report indicated a softening in economic data, leading to discussions about the potential impact on the U.S. economy. The job market's moderation and the cooling of inflation have shifted the Fed's focus back to maintaining a strong labor market. The unemployment rate has been steadily increasing, reaching 4.1% in June from 3.6% a year earlier, indicating a potential challenge in finding employment. The market's reaction to the June jobs report sent bond yields lower and renewed hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The chances of a September interest rate cut of 25 basis points rose to 72%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped about five basis points to 4.31%. The report, combined with other economic data, suggests a slowing economic landscape. The market's response to the report and the potential implications for future Fed decisions were closely monitored by investors and analysts.

Additional Coverage
Supplimental Context