Markets React to Trump Win and June Jobs Report

July 2, 2024

On Tuesday, US stocks showed mixed performance as investors assessed the likelihood of a rate cut ahead of the crucial June jobs report and considered the potential impact of a Donald Trump win on the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hovered near the flat line, while the Nasdaq Composite edged slightly into positive territory. The market is exhibiting signs of caution as it approaches the July 4 holiday and awaits the June jobs report. Despite concerns over recent softer data, fresh job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase from April to May, indicating a resilient labor market. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell expressed optimism about cooler inflation but emphasized the need for more evidence before considering interest rate cuts. Political risk is also a concern for investors, with speculation growing around a potential Trump election win and Joe Biden's future as the Democratic Party's standard bearer. Treasury yields nudged lower, and on the corporate front, Tesla's better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries led to a 5% increase in its shares. However, Nvidia and drugmaker Eli Lilly experienced declines, contributing to the mixed performance of the S&P 500. Powell's comments on inflation and the uncertainty surrounding rate cuts influenced market movements, with investors closely monitoring the situation. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the JOLTS Job Openings report, indicating 8.14 million job openings for May, higher than expected and a sign of a resilient labor market. However, the report is a lagging indicator, and companies announcing workforce reductions suggest a potential continuation of the downward trend. Powell's comments at a central banking forum in Portugal highlighted the progress in bringing inflation back to target but emphasized the need for sustainable movement towards 2% before considering easing policy. US futures inched lower on Tuesday morning following a strong trading session, and the market saw a slight rise after jobs data exceeded expectations and Tesla's shares jumped due to better-than-anticipated second-quarter deliveries. The Nasdaq Composite traded 0.2% higher, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%. Powell's acknowledgment of progress on inflation and the resilience of the labor market under high interest rates influenced market movements, with investors closely monitoring the situation.

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